In the early 2020s, quantum computing felt inevitable and imminent. Headlines declared “quantum supremacy,” startups reached multibillion-dollar valuations, and qubit counts became the industry’s scoreboard. For investors, the message was clear: this was the next platform shift, and the window was closing fast.
A few years later, reality set in.
After a strong start of the decade, global quantum investments in startups slashed 60% from 2021 to 2023 which we can call a mild quantum winter. Progress continued, but not at the pace many expected. Error correction proved harder than anticipated, scaling exposed new bottlenecks, and commercially meaningful use cases remained elusive.
Now, momentum is returning but with a more grounded narrative. The focus has shifted from abstract metrics like qubit count to a harder question: what can quantum actually do in practice? For investors, this marks a more compelling entry point. Increasing quantum computing capabilities will open new application areas with the support of HPC and AI. First, in scientific research and gradually more and more in commercial use cases.
What Investors Got Wrong
Early investment assumptions were overly simplistic.
First, a narrow focus on scaling selected technical KPI would directly translate into value. In reality, noise, error rates, and system stability matter as much as qubit count.
Second, that progress would be steady. Instead, it has been nonlinear and many startups have failed to gain enough traction to fund their next development phase.
Third, that value would quickly concentrate on a few winners. Capital followed this belief: superconducting approaches captured the majority of global funding. Yet despite that lead, major challenges in error correction, coherence, and system integration remain unresolved. Meanwhile, alternatives like trapped ions and photonics continue to advance. The result: the long-term winning architecture is still undecided.
Finally, those early revenues would come from quantum advantage in applications. Instead, they have come from government funding, partnerships, and cloud access models.
What Matters Now
If the 2020s proved quantum systems can work, the next phase is about making them useful.
Attention is shifting toward error correction, system integration, and hybrid quantum-classical approaches. The ecosystem has also matured: Big Tech controls access via cloud platforms, while startups specialize across the stack – from hardware components to orchestration software. Governments remain central as both funders and market shapers.
Quantum is no longer a single bet. It is an emerging industry.
Implications for Investors
- Infrastructure comes first
Near-term opportunities lie in enabling layers: error correction, middleware, control systems, and components. As an example, SemiQon provides cryo-CMOS solutions for transferring separate room-temperature functionalities to take place directly in quantum chips, increasing process stability and decreasing the need for complex wiring. - Modality independence
With no dominant architecture, concentrated bets on one modality, even well-funded ones, carry risk. Our portfolio company QuantrolOx, offers machine learning based automated qubit control for quantum computers, which increases uptime significantly. Software platform technology allows it to be used in most of the modalities. - Integration is the moat
Winners will plug into existing HPC and cloud ecosystems, not operate in isolation. - Time to revenue
Investors’ appetite to fund many-year development without commercial validation is non-existent. Roadmap needs to contain early commercialization and revenues. - Risk sharing
Quantum development is inherently expensive. Large enough funding rounds and investor syndicates are essential.
Why This Moment Matters
The cooling of hype has made quantum more investable.
Expectations are more realistic, and the focus has shifted to where real value can emerge first. At the same time, advances in AI and computing are beginning to intersect with quantum, potentially accelerating progress at the system level. Stock-listed quantum companies are highly valued, building more interest in private companies, too.
Positioning for the Next Decade
Investing in quantum is not about picking a single winner. It is about building exposure to a system still taking shape. That means backing enabling technologies, supporting interdisciplinary teams, and maintaining flexibility as the stack evolves. Our view at Voima Ventures is that the quantum industry is now shifting from the first wave to the second. In the first wave, the majority of businesses have been on enabling components, while in the second wave, the role of full-stack players and integrators will grow. The third wave will be the 3rd party application layer, which will break through when critical computational capabilities are achieved.
The first half of the 2020s showed that quantum will not follow a predictable path. The path to the next decade will be defined by something more meaningful: the gradual translation of scientific progress into real-world utility. Patience will continue to be a virtue, and short-term wins might be easier to find somewhere else. However, when the reward might be the technological breakthrough of our lifetime, the risks feel more bearable to take.
