Over the past 18 months, we’ve watched the conversation swing from “deploy at any cost” to “prove it, price it, finance it.” Green transition investments are changing character, and for the founders out there, we say: that’s a healthy transition. Investments are moving from ambition to industrial reality, and the startups that win this next phase won’t just have a better molecule, material, process, or algorithm. They’ll have a credible path to impact at scale.

The narrative has changed. Even when investors don’t any more label it “climate,” many of the biggest real-economy venture opportunities sit inside the energy system: electrification, storage, grids, flexible demand, industrial efficiency, and resilient infrastructure. Globally, 2025 put the investments back on growth, and, according to the 2025 Climate Tech Investments Trends from Sightline Climate, climate tech investments were up by 8%. There is a global race to expand energy production for AI and data centers, which is evident in the drive for innovation in the energy infrastructure. For founders, this is a signal: the next wave of winners in the green transition won’t just be green, they’ll be economically inevitable, data infrastructure and system-compatible, and financeable at scale.

While global climate tech investments excelled, Europe unfortunately fell behind. In Q3, according to the EU Cleantech Quarterly Briefing for Q3 2025, European investments into Cleantech declined by 22.7% when comparing the first three quarters of 2025 to 2024. European tech ecosystem should take heed; something needs to be done!

Pontus Stråhlman, Partner Voima Ventures

At Voima Ventures, we focus on scalable deep-tech innovations to global markets. Green Transformation, being one of our core domains, we look for industry-transforming innovations – innovations that not only transition an existing industry towards sustainability but transform the way industries operate. For our investment thesis on Green Transformation, that increasingly means four things.

1) Impact is non-negotiable.

Capital is still available, but only when impact is measurable, attributable, and durable. Show clear metrics (CO2e avoided/removed, energy saved, resource efficiency improved, biodiversity/pollution outcomes) and be explicit about boundaries. If impact can’t be quantified, it is not a Green Transformation innovation.

2) Green premiums are dead.

Customers rarely pay extra just to be green. If your business case relies on voluntary premiums, behavior change, or future regulation changes to become competitive, you are probably too early to commercialize. The bar today: win on cost, reliability, or performance under current market conditions. I trust that politicians will not be scaling back significantly on existing commitments, but expecting significant tail winds from politicians is not the way to build a startup in today’s climate.

3) “Startup CAPEX” doesn’t scale, but bankability does.

Balance-sheet-heavy CAPEX inside a venture-backed startup is increasingly unacceptable. Scaling needs a structure where the customer funds the asset (or commits via long-term offtake/service contracts), or a roadmap to bankability where project finance, green bonds, or infra/PE capital can fund deployment once tech risk is reduced. Crucially, the innovation must be impactful enough, both environmentally and economically,  that customers are willing to sign long-term commitments. Bankability requires derisked technology and derisked demand: multi-year contracts, bankable counterparties, credible volumes, and enforceable pricing mechanisms.

4) The transition is system-wide, so your startup must be adaptive.

The operating environment is changing fast: more renewables, constrained grids, electrification, and higher price volatility. Winning startups are built for that reality, with an ability to flex operations, integrate with new market mechanisms, stay resilient across geographies, and evolve as the system transforms. AI is improving how systems are designed, operated, maintained, and optimized. Founders should articulate how automation will change their value chain: what becomes commoditized, what stays defensible.

What “systems-wide” scaling really means

Many breakthroughs start as a point solution, but scale only when they integrate into a broader system: energy, feedstocks, logistics, certification, and end-customer adoption. Founders should map dependencies, bottlenecks, and what must be true for repeated deployments, not just a successful pilot.

Where we see the next wave of scalable Green Transformation

In practice, we see scaling opportunities across several segments. Different segments have different scaling constraints, such as permits, offtake structures, commodity exposure, and hardware intensity, but they share the same requirement: a path from technology validation to bankable deployment.

  • Industrial decarbonization and process efficiency – Solutions that cut emissions in heavy industry by improving yields, reducing energy use, or enabling new low-carbon processes without requiring the customer to change their core operating model.
  • Clean fuels and feedstocks – Electrofuels and synthetic molecules (e.g., eSAF) that can plug into existing infrastructure, with credible supply chains for electricity, CO2, and logistics.
  • Energy system flexibility – Technologies that create flexibility for a renewables-heavy grid through controllable loads, storage, and assets that can monetize volatility while providing reliability.
  • Circular materials and resource recovery – Ways to turn waste streams into high-value inputs, reduce virgin material demand, or improve traceability and compliance across the value chain.
  • Bio-based production and food systems – Fermentation and bio-based routes that can compete on cost and performance, while being robust to commodity price swings and scaling constraints in feedstocks.
  • Software, automation, and AI for physical industries – A digital layer that improves design, commissioning, operations, maintenance, trading, and raises asset productivity and lowers downtime in capital-intensive systems.

Case example: Liquid Sun and the path to eSAF at scale

Liquid Sun is a good example of what we mean by systems thinking. Sustainable aviation fuel is not a single-technology problem. To make eSAF real at an industrial scale, you need a chain that works end-to-end: low-cost clean electricity, electrolysis, a reliable source of biogenic or captured CO2, synthesis, upgrading, certification, and finally long-term offtake with airlines and fuel distributors.

The “green premium” question shows up immediately in eSAF. Airlines will not commit at scale if the product is structurally uncompetitive, and financiers will not fund plants without bankable demand. That’s why long-term offtake agreements and credible counterparties become as important as the chemistry. The technology must perform, but the business model must also translate that performance into financeable cash flows.

This is also where the system-wide energy transition matters. As renewables penetration increases, power price volatility rises. eFuels players that can operate flexibly by optimizing production to power prices, managing intermittency, and integrating with new market mechanisms can unlock materially better economics. Price parity with biomass-based fuels can, in turn, unlock an almost infinite amount of raw material sources, creating a perfect opportunity to scale. In other words, the winners will be the ones who design for the future energy infrastructure, not the past one.

Case example: EniferBio and the hard work of making bioprocesses bankable

EniferBio illustrates another scaling reality: in industrial biotech, the complexity is rarely only the fermentation or the production process itself. Scaling requires building an integrated platform that works upstream and downstream, and proving it with numbers that customers and financiers trust.

In practice, that has meant working in parallel on (i) securing reliable, low-cost feedstock through long-term partnerships, (ii) integrating the process upstream and downstream to reduce logistics and improve utilization, and (iii) commercializing the end products with customers willing to commit to multi-year contracts – creating financeable cash flows for the next scale-up.

Long-term customer commitments – offtake agreements that prove willingness to pay and create financeable cash flows.

Feedstock and integration – secured volumes, quality specs, and partnerships that reduce cost and friction across the value chain.

Techno-economic proof – transparent assumptions, sensitivity cases, and a credible roadmap from pilot to commercial scale.

Across these cases, the pattern is the same: scale follows when technology risk is reduced, demand is contracted, and the business model is structured so that cheaper capital can fund deployment.

A practical checklist that founders should build toward

If your innovation has a path to significant deployment, start building the elements that unlock cheaper capital early. In many cases, the fundraising “inflection point” is not a new valuation milestone; it’s when you can show bankability. As a Founder, you no longer have the luxury of figuring out stuff while improving on the technology. You need to build a storyline of a startup journey that investors can trust. This includes:

  • Technology de-risking – repeatable performance data, clear operating envelope, and reliability under real-world conditions.
  • Delivery capability – EPC/engineering partners, supply chain readiness, commissioning plan, and credible timelines.
  • Operations and warranties – O&M model, uptime targets, warranties/guarantees, and an approach to monitoring and maintenance.
  • Permitting and compliance – a path through permitting, safety, and sustainability/certification requirements.
  • De-risked demand – multi-year offtake/service contracts, bankable counterparties, credible volumes, and enforceable pricing/indexation.
  • Financing readiness – project structures that lenders and infra capital recognize, with risk allocation that makes sense.

AI is reshaping the scaling playbook

Automation is not a side theme; it is becoming a core driver of competitiveness in physical industries. AI is improving how systems are designed, operated, maintained, improved, and optimized: from process control and predictive maintenance to energy trading, supply chain planning, and faster engineering cycles. Founders should articulate how an “era of AI automation” affects their value chain: what parts become commoditized, where differentiation moves, and what proprietary data or integration moat they can build as deployment scales.

The takeaway: Green Transformation is entering its scale era. The companies that will define the next decade can prove impact, compete without a green premium, and finance growth beyond VC by combining de-risked technology with de-risked demand. In a system that is becoming more electrified, more volatile, and more automated, the best founders will also show a clear vision for how their innovation fits into the broader transformation and how it improves as the system evolves.

Founders: if you’re building for the Green Transformation, plan for scale from day one. Prove your impact with hard metrics, win customers without relying on a green premium, and design a path to bankability through long-term contracts and financeable unit economics. Assume the system will keep changing with more renewables, more volatility, and more automation, so show how your solution gets stronger in that future.

If that sounds like your company, we’d like to hear from you. Share a short deck, and make sure to include (1) impact KPIs, (2) current customer traction and contract pathway, (3) unit economics and de-risking milestones, and (4) your funding plan beyond VC to bankability.